A quick impression of the Premier League outright prices.

To win.

Working through the teams alphabetically, Chelsea are the first team to stand out, the model suggests they do not represent value at the bookies 4.5, everything was in their favour last year, no Champions League football, added to which last year's results exceeded performances, they will do well to repeat last year's point haul without improvement.

Liverpool at 12/1 are worth a bet. Last year, if I recall correctly they didn't lose to one of the better teams, they did slip up against the weaker teams. That is surely easier to rectify than Arsenal's who struggle against the better teams. The Champions League is the fly in the ointment, though figures I collate suggest Liverpool's squad members aren't at all bad.

Keeping it brief but Manchester City, deserve to be favourites but i'm surprised to find the bookies have them shorter than my model which is quite pro Man City. There has to be a question mark over them.

Manchester United, might be a team underestimated by the model, that said they do have a lot to find so whilst the model's price might be high, I still think the bookies are too short.

Southampton are the next team to take the eye, they have a new manager who has great credentials though a new manager can go either way. They are capable and look a shoo in at 1.67 for the Top Half, i'll probably double them up with someone.

Tottenham are the other team I'll be backing, 10/1 is generous based on my figures. Okay they have to play their home games at Wembley but there isn't a real sample of similar situatiions and i'll take a chance that a good side like Tottenham can cope.

Middlesbrough are the standout in the Championship and should be backed at 7/1 to win the division. 

Aston Villa have spent big and have the right manager to progress but make no appeal to me.

Cardiff are interesting nd will make be worth of consideration for one of the alternative markets. I suspect my prices are wrong on Fulham, and they will prove more competitive than the 38.58 I make them suggests. Similarly Norwich appear to be overrated though should still be considered for an alternative market.

Aviva Premiership​
Ante-post is the area where the models I run really excel, there have been some notable winners over the years and some excruitating near misses at long long odds. 

Using the raw figures based on each team's ability as it stood at the end of last season, feeding them through  simulator I have created we finish up with the following as shown below.

The team that standsout at the prices is Saracens at Boyle's 2.3.  The simulator ran just over 2500 times, teams who didn't record any wins were granted a default of 3001.  The above prices will change once we know which fixtures will be played during the international weeks. 

The bookies have yet to price the Regular Season and To Finish Bottom markets, these two look to be the most interesting ones. Exeter in the Regular Season could well be an interesting price. Whilst the Bottom market based on the above is wide open with four teams in real danger.